As we can see, although the daily percentage can vary (presumably due to testing of suspected “hot spots” such as affected factories or contact-tracing following major exposure incidents), the percent of positive tests has remained around 10% for the past three weeks, even as the number of daily tests has increased. While this does not mean that Armenia has “flattened the curve” of Covid-19, since the number of daily identified cases is not dropping, neither does it mean that there is a significant increase in the number of cases indicating a critical worsening of the situation. Another important factor to keep in mind is the “selection bias” inherent in a testing policy which focuses on testing only people with relevant symptoms, and contact-tracing individuals who have been exposed to confirmed cases or events. One would expect the tested population’s infection rate to be higher than the general population, since they are being tested precisely because they are “at risk.”
We can also compare Armenia to a number of other countries who report total tests in addition to confirmed cases and deaths.1 This group includes both countries with very effective coronavirus responses, those who faced significant challenges, and those in the middle – South Korea, Italy, Russia and the U.S. are highlighted (Figure 4). As we can see, Armenia is above the average of the 29 countries included, and the divergence of the past week indicates that Armenia has not yet reached the apex of the spread of the disease.
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