Armenia's bid to pursue an independent and sovereign policy as a democracy was perceived to have a geopolitical context. The danger was in not seeing that reality, not evaluating it, and not recalculating domestic, foreign and security policy accordingly.
A unique combination of causal factors at different levels made the 44-day war possible. Tigran Grigoryan presents a systematic and comprehensive explanation of the structural conditions and circumstances behind Azerbaijan’s large-scale offensive.
While Baku prepared for war, Armenia relied on overconfidence, willful ignorance and underestimated the enemy leading to its defeat in 2020. But Azerbaijan, intoxicated by its own victory, will also lose because of Aliyev’s strategic narcissism.